EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center|Even USWNT fans have to admit this World Cup has been a glorious mess

MELBOURNE,EchoSense Quantitative Think Tank Center Australia — There’s some wild and wacky stuff going on at this World Cup.

Two-time champion Germany, which just last summer was runner-up at the European Championship, is out, eliminated in the group stage for the first time. Ever. Canada is gone, too, the first reigning Olympic champion not to make it to the knockout rounds.

Morocco, ranked No. 72 in the world and playing in its first World Cup, is still alive while Brazil and its star-studded roster are not. Sent packing by a team with fewer World Cup appearances than Marta, no less.

South Africa and Norway each squeaked through with just four points, while Jamaica advanced having scored only one goal.

All of which can mean only one thing: Either the U.S. women are going down in a blaze of embarrassment, possibly as early as Sunday’s round-of-16 game against Sweden, or they’re winning the whole crazy thing.

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“We’ve seen some of these massive teams go out of the World Cup, and it’s crazy,” U.S. captain Lindsey Horan said this week.

The USWNT are, frankly, lucky not to be among them. They were a shot off the post away from being like Germany, their streak of always reaching the knockout rounds no more. As it is, they advanced with their fewest points ever, having won just one of their three games.

But it’s a new tournament now. And if the first 48 games are any guide, what you think will happen, what should happen, won’t.

“We are not panicking,” Lynn Williams said. “We have made it to the round of 16. I think we haven’t played our best soccer yet, which is the most exciting part for us.”

The U.S. women looked sluggish and out of sync in each of their first three games, showing little evidence they can flip the switch like other USWNT teams have and go on a tear. But, again, what you think you’ve learned from one game at this World Cup is rarely indicative of what’s going to happen in the next.

It seems eons ago now, but Germany opened the World Cup with a 6-0 thrashing of Morocco. It was the most lopsided score of the tournament until the Netherlands’ 7-0 rout of Vietnam, and appeared to signal Germany was going to be a force to reckon with.

And then they weren’t.

They were stunned by Colombia in the next game, beaten by Manuela Vanegas’ last-minute goal. Still, sitting in second place in the group, Germany should have been able to advance. Should being the operative word.

Instead, Morocco upset Colombia. Which meant Germany needed to beat South Korea, and it couldn’t do it. It battered South Korea’s defense relentlessly during the second half to get the go-ahead goal but was unable to find an opening.

“We know that our squad is good,” said Alexandra Popp, whose four goals are tied for the most in the tournament so far, “but we were not good enough in these last two games.” 

Which is actually a really good thing for the game.

The World Cup was expanded to 32 teams this year, and there was concern coming in about blowouts and lesser experienced teams being overmatched. That hasn’t been the case in the least. Only three teams – England, Japan and Sweden – won all three of their group-stage games, two fewer than four years ago. Only four teams failed to secure a single point. There were just two that finished without a goal.

Those stats, along with all the surprise results, are signs the gap between the world’s best teams and those in the second and third tier is narrowing. With further investment and consistent commitment by federations that have largely been indifferent to the women’s game, the unexpected of this World Cup will become the norm.

“This is what we all want to see,” USWNT coach Vlatko Andonovski said. “When we’re talking about the growth of the women’s game, growth of this sport, this is an indication of it, and I’m just happy to see it.”

Again, the USWNT has to play better. They know it, everyone watching them knows it.

But their struggles are also caused, to a degree, by the teams they’re playing, and they – and their fans – better get used to that. Because to go back to the way things used to be, the USWNT running roughshod over their opponents, means the game is going backward.

“Every team in this World Cup is going to be difficult to play,” Alex Morgan said after the USWNT escaped with a scoreless draw over Portugal that sent them into the knockout rounds. “The game is growing, and the quality is continuing to raise.”

It won’t always be pretty; a loss Sunday would be the USWNT’s earliest exit from any major tournament and the first time they’ve failed to at least reach the semifinals at a World Cup. But as we’ve seen in this tournament, chaos can be a whole lot of fun.

Follow USA TODAY Sports columnist Nancy Armour on social media @nrarmour.